Market Update 12/12/2024
AUD/USD hovers near 0.6380, just above the year-to-date low of 0.6350, after the RBA expressed growing confidence in inflation moving toward its target. Markets now see a 60% chance of a 25bp rate cut in mid-February, up from under 50% before yesterday’s meeting.
Market Update 05/12/2024
The AUD/USD pair hovered around 0.6480 in recent trading. All eyes are on Australia’s Q3 2024 GDP data, set for release at 11:30 AM Sydney time. Economists project a 0.5% quarterly and 1.1% annual growth. A significant underperformance could potentially accelerate the RBA’s rate cut timeline, currently anticipated for May 2025, and subsequently impact the AUD/USD.
Market Update 02/12/2024
■ The AUD/USD pair held steady around 0.6500 overnight, showing minimal reaction to RBA Governor Bullock’s speech yesterday evening. Bullock maintained a neutral stance, avoiding explicit statements about needing two more favourable inflation reports before considering a cash rate cut. She acknowledged the high margin of error in inflation forecasts and indicated readiness to act if inflation falls significantly below projections.
Market Update 25/11/2024
AUD/USD remains range-bound near 0.65, despite USD gains against major European currencies. Global equity markets appear unfazed by the escalating Ukraine-Russia conflict. President Trump’s re-election has bolstered equity markets, supporting risk-sensitive currencies like AUD/USD. However, if global economic concerns emerge, AUD/USD may face further downward pressure.
Market Update 18/11/2024
US equities dipped overnight, with the S&P 500 falling 0.3% and the Nasdaq and Dow showing similar declines. In contrast, the Euro Stoxx 50 gained 2.0% and the FTSE 100 rose by 0.5%. Meanwhile, the yield on the US 10-year bond dropped 5 bps to 4.41%.
Market Update 14/11/2024
Wall Street experienced a softer session, with the Dow Jones down 0.6%, S&P 500 down 0.1%, and Nasdaq flat in late trading. U.S. 10-year yields increased by 12 basis points to 4.43%, while crude oil rose 0.3% to $68.20 per barrel. The USD strengthened across the board, pushing AUD/USD to a low of 0.65145 before settling at 0.6530/35 ahead of the Asian market opening.
Market Update 07/11/2024
■ AUD/USD fell as low 0.6540 overnight, weighted down by lower US equities. AUD/USD later reversed the fall and is currently trading near 0.6580. Today’s ABS monthly household spending indicator (MHSI) for September will provide an important update on spending (11.30am Sydney time). This is a new and experimental series but has a much broader coverage than yesterday’s retail trade figures (~68% of household consumption compared to 30‑35% for retail trade). The MHSI has been substantially weaker than retail trade over recent months. We expect AUD/USD to remain heavy for now because of the impending US election and still solid US economy.
Market Update 05/11/2024
■ AUD/USD fell as low 0.6540 overnight, weighted down by lower US equities. AUD/USD later reversed the fall and is currently trading near 0.6580. Today’s ABS monthly household spending indicator (MHSI) for September will provide an important update on spending (11.30am Sydney time). This is a new and experimental series but has a much broader coverage than yesterday’s retail trade figures (~68% of household consumption compared to 30‑35% for retail trade). The MHSI has been substantially weaker than retail trade over recent months. We expect AUD/USD to remain heavy for now because of the impending US election and still solid US economy.
Market Update 04/11/2024
■ AUD/USD fell as low 0.6540 overnight, weighted down by lower US equities. AUD/USD later reversed the fall and is currently trading near 0.6580. Today’s ABS monthly household spending indicator (MHSI) for September will provide an important update on spending (11.30am Sydney time). This is a new and experimental series but has a much broader coverage than yesterday’s retail trade figures (~68% of household consumption compared to 30‑35% for retail trade). The MHSI has been substantially weaker than retail trade over recent months. We expect AUD/USD to remain heavy for now because of the impending US election and still solid US economy.
Market Update 31/10/2024
The technology sector drove a positive session on Wall St. with the Nasdaq closing +0.8%, the S&P 500 +.2%, and the Dow Jones -.3%. U.S. 10-year yields were unchanged, while crude oil traded fractionally lower to $67.20 a barrel. In currency markets, the AUD/USD settled at the lower end of its 0.6545/.65845 range ahead of today’s quarterly inflation data.
