RBA and U.S. CPI in focus today as markets assess the path of rate cuts

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Forex Market 

USD: Mixed Moves as Markets Position for CPI
The U.S. dollar traded broadly higher overnight ahead of the CPI release, with EUR/USD and GBP/USD slipping while USD/JPY extended gains.

  • AUD/USD held in a 0.65016–0.65285 range, closing near 0.6505/10.
  • NZD/USD touched 0.5926 lows before settling near 0.5940.
  • EUR/USD dipped to 1.1615 lows.
  • GBP/USD fell to 1.3413.
  • USD/JPY climbed to 148.215 highs.

 

AUD: Calm Before RBA Storm
AUD/USD saw muted price action as traders awaited the RBA decision.

Directional conviction likely to come post-statement.

Key Economic Data Ahead (Sydney Time)

 

General Market

Wall Street
U.S. equities finished softer amid a cautious session:

  • Dow Jones -0.5%
  • S&P 500 -0.3%
  • Nasdaq -0.4%

U.S. 10-year yields steady at 4.28%; Brent crude up slightly to $66.80/bbl.

Asia-Pacific

  • Nikkei +1.9%, Shenzhen +0.4%, Hang Seng +0.2%
  • ASX 200 +0.4% (materials +1.6%, healthcare +0.6%)

Europe

  • FTSE +0.2%, Stoxx -0.1%, CAC -0.2%, DAX -0.2%
  • EUR/USD reversed from 1.16755 to 1.16385 in morning trade.

 

Headlines to Watch

  • RBA Cash Rate & Statement on Monetary Policy – expected 25bps cut to 3.60%
  • U.S. CPI (July) – headline expected +0.2% MoM; core +0.3% MoM
  • Trump Comments – tariff deadline extended 90 days; promises ‘constructive’ talks with Putin
  • USD Strength – most majors trade lower against the dollar ahead of data risk

 

Mid-market rates

Currency PairMid-market Rate
AUD/USD0.6515
AUD/NZD1.0968
AUD/JPY95.56
AUD/CNY4.6839
AUD/EUR0.5609
AUD/GBP0.4850
AUD/HKD5.1147

 

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