USD Supported by Energy Resilience as AUD Faces Domestic Headwinds

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Forex Market 

USD Supported by Energy Resilience; AUD Faces Domestic Growth Headwinds
The U.S. dollar remained underpinned at the start of the week as America’s growing status as a net oil exporter continued to shield the economy from the worst of the global energy shock, helping the greenback outperform many of its major peers. While elevated crude prices have lifted inflation expectations globally, the U.S. has benefited from stronger energy export revenues and improved external balances, limiting downside pressure on the currency even as broader market sentiment stabilises. This resilience has kept demand for the dollar firm as investors continue to favour economies perceived as better insulated from Middle East-driven supply disruptions.
In contrast, the Australian dollar remains more sensitive to the inflation-growth tradeoff highlighted in Westpac’s latest weekly outlook. While Australia’s terms of trade remain supported by firm commodity prices, markets are increasingly focused on domestic risks including softer consumer sentiment, slowing activity momentum, and uncertainty around the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next move following its recent rate hike. Westpac expects this week’s labour force data, consumer sentiment readings, and the release of RBA meeting minutes to be key catalysts for AUD direction, with traders watching closely for signs that tighter policy is beginning to weigh more materially on growth.

General Market

Wall Street

  • Dow Jones: +1.07% to 49,530
  • S&P 500: -1.24% to 7,408.49
  • Nasdaq: –0.63% to 28,650
Asia-Pacific
  • ASX 200: -0.53% to 8,610
  • Nikkei: –0.82% to 61,256
  • Shanghai Composite: -1.01% to 4,751
Europe
  • FTSE: -0.21% to 10,175
  • DAX: -2.07% to 23,950
  • CAC: -.07% to 7,901

Headlines to Watch

United States

  • FOMC minutes → clues on Fed easing timeline
  • Housing + activity data → recession resilience check
  • Treasury yield moves remain central for USD direction

Europe

  • Flash PMI → growth slowdown vs stabilisation debate
  • ECB policy commentary → rate-cut pricing sensitivity
  • Energy price developments remain inflation wildcard

Asia-Pacific

  • Australian jobs data → key AUD volatility trigger
  • Japan CPI → BoJ normalisation expectations
  • NZ retail sales → regional growth momentum gauge

Global / Geopolitics

  • Middle East tensions → oil supply / inflation risk
  • China demand signals → commodity-linked FX sensitivity
  • Risk sentiment shifts continue driving safe-haven flows

 

Currency PairMid-market Rate
AUD/USD0.7128
AUD/NZD1.2221
AUD/JPY113.23
AUD/CNY4.8588
AUD/EUR0.6135
AUD/GBP0.5353
AUD/HKD5.5816

 

 

 

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