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US Dollar Strength Keeps NZD Under Pressure Despite Strong Trade Balance

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US Dollar Strength Keeps NZD Under Pressure Despite Strong Trade Balance
The New Zealand dollar remained under pressure after June’s trade data showed a stronger-than-expected surplus, as broad-based US dollar strength continued to dominate currency markets. Investors remained focused on the resilience of the US economy and expectations that interest rates will stay elevated for longer, supporting demand for the greenback. At the same time, global equity markets continued to find support from solid corporate earnings and ongoing enthusiasm around artificial intelligence, although geopolitical tensions and higher energy prices kept market sentiment cautious.
Looking ahead, markets are shifting their attention to a busy week of economic releases, including PMI surveys, inflation data, central bank decisions and labour market reports across major economies. Notes that New Zealand’s upcoming inflation figures will be closely watched for clues on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy path, while the European Central Bank and key US data are expected to shape expectations for global interest rates. Although New Zealand’s external sector has shown resilience through stronger trade performance, currency movements are likely to remain driven by broader US dollar trends and evolving global risk sentiment.

 

General Market

Wall Street

  • Dow Jones: +0.08% to 52,151
  • S&P 500: -1.01% to 7,457
  • Nasdaq: -0.19% to 28,682
Asia-Pacific
  • ASX 200: +0.14% to 8,814
  • Nikkei: +0.62% to 64,944
  • Shanghai Composite: -2.80% to 4,369
Europe
  • FTSE: -0.11% to 10,586
  • DAX: -0.34% to 24,830
  • CAC: -0.02% to 8,346

Headlines to Watch

United States

  • Flash PMI → key read on economic momentum ahead of the Fed
  • Initial Jobless Claims → labour market resilience
  • Housing data → gauges strength of domestic demand

Europe

  • ECB rate decision → policy guidance and September expectations
  • Eurozone Flash PMI → growth and inflation outlook
  • UK CPI → Bank of England rate path

Asia-Pacific

  • Japan CPI → BOJ policy expectations
  • New Zealand CPI → RBNZ outlook
  • Australia Flash PMI → business activity and demand trends

Global / Geopolitics

  • Middle East developments → oil prices and risk sentiment
  • US dollar strength → major FX direction
  • Global Flash PMIs → broad indicator of worldwide economic momentum.
Currency Pair Mid-market Rate
AUD/USD 0.6984
AUD/NZD 1.1953
AUD/JPY 113.48
AUD/CNY 4.7332
AUD/EUR 0.6109
AUD/GBP 0.5193
AUD/HKD 5.4759

 

 

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