U.S.-Iran Tensions Drive Sharp Moves in Equities, FX, and Commodities as Risk Sentiment Plummets

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Forex Market 

Geopolitical Shock Hits Risk Assets; USD Firms on Safe-Haven Flows 

Geopolitical tensions intensified after large-scale U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend, with reports confirming the death of Iran’s leader Ali Khamenei, triggering a sharp deterioration in global risk sentiment. As markets reopened on Monday, safe-haven flows strengthened the U.S. dollar broadly, while risk-correlated and commodity-linked currencies came under pressure.
The Australian dollar fell sharply from its previous close to fresh session lows, while the euro and the British pound also moved lower amid defensive positioning. The Japanese yen remained relatively firm against the U.S. dollar, the New Zealand dollar dipped before staging a modest recovery, and the Canadian dollar weakened as oil-driven volatility added to currency swings. The U.S. Dollar Index remained supported, reflecting sustained demand for the greenback.
From a technical perspective, the Australian dollar has remained within a defined recent range, with buying interest emerging on dips toward key support levels and selling pressure building near resistance, suggesting continued consolidation unless geopolitical developments drive a decisive breakout.

General Market

Wall Street

  • Dow Jones: -1.1% to 48,978
  • S&P 500: -0.4% to 6,879
  • Nasdaq: -0.9% to 22,668
  • VIX: +7.0% to 19.94

Asia-Pacific

  • ASX 200: +0.3% to 9,199
  • Shanghai Composite: +0.4% to 4,163
  • Nikkei: +0.2% to 58,850

Europe

  • FTSE: +0.6% to 10,911
  • DAX: Flat at 25,284
  • CAC: -0.5% to 8,581

 

Headlines to Watch

Middle East

  • Escalation following coordinated U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran, with reports confirming the death of Ali Khamenei.
  • Iran warns of broader regional and religious conflict.
  • Israel calls up 100,000 reservists and signals further military action.

United States

  • U.S. ISM Manufacturing (Feb) expected to moderate to 51.8; focus on Prices Paid, New Orders, and Employment components.
  • U.S. equity futures and commodity markets reopen at 10am Sydney amid elevated volatility.
  • Comments from President Donald Trump on Iran, military options, and tariff policy developments.
Currency PairMid-market Rate
AUD/USD0.7161
AUD/NZD1.1852
AUD/JPY110.57
AUD/CNY4.8788
AUD/EUR0.6004
AUD/GBP0.5269
AUD/HKD5.5269

 

 

 

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