Stocks Rise Despite Shutdown; Dollar Volatile on Data Miss

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Forex Market 

USD: Softer on Weak Data, but Recovers
The USD sold off following a significant miss in the ADP Employment report but recovered ground heading into the NY afternoon. The initial risk-off sentiment from the U.S. government shutdown also saw early pressure on the dollar before sentiment improved.
  • EUR/USD drifted from highs of 1.17785 to fresh lows of 1.1720 after Eurozone CPI met expectations.
  • GBP/USD rallied to highs of 1.35265 following the weak U.S. data.
  • AUD/USD traded to a high of 0.6629 on broad USD weakness.
  • USD/JPY fell about 50 points to touch lows of 146.59.
  • USD/CAD was an exception, rising to 1.3957 highs before easing.
  • NZD/USD rose to 0.58305.

 

AUD: Quiet and Range-Bound
The AUD/USD traded in a narrow 29-pip range during the Asian session before being lifted by broad USD weakness in New York. The pair settled near its opening level around 0.6610. Demand is seen towards 0.6600, with selling interest emerging near 0.6640.

 

Key Economic Data Ahead (Sydney Time)

 

General Market

 
Wall Street
U.S. equities edged higher for a fourth consecutive session, shrugging off the official U.S. government shutdown.
  • Dow Jones +0.1% to 46,441
  • S&P 500 +0.3% to 6,711
  • Nasdaq +0.4% to 22,755

 

U.S. 10-year yields fell 5bps to 4.10%. WTI crude was 0.8% lower at $61.90/bbl.

 

Asia-Pacific
Asian equities finished mixed.
  • Nikkei -0.9% to 44,551
  • Hang Seng +0.9%
  • Shenzhen +0.5%
  • ASX 200 flat at 8,846

 

Europe
European markets rallied in late trade after a weaker start.
  • FTSE +1.0% to 9,446
  • DAX +1.0% to 24,114
  • CAC +0.9% to 7,967
  • Stoxx was initially weaker (-0.4%) before recovering.

 

U.K. 10-year Gilts pushed higher to 4.72%. Brent crude continued its retreat, falling -0.6% to $65.60/bbl.

 

Headlines to Watch 

  • Fed Commentary – Chair Powell signaled the Fed is in no rush to cut rates, stressing inflation remains “stubborn” in core services.
  • U.S. Data – September ISM Manufacturing Index expected tonight; markets watching for signs of demand slowdown.
  • Oil Prices – Brent crude steadied near $95 after last week’s sharp rally on supply concerns.
  • China Outlook – Beijing announced fresh stimulus measures, including tax breaks for SMEs and property support.
  • FX Moves – Dollar Index hovered near 12-month highs as yen slipped closer to BoJ’s intervention zone.

 

Mid-market rates

Currency PairMid-market Rate
AUD/USD0.6608
AUD/NZD1.1363
AUD/JPY97.27
AUD/CNY4.7047
AUD/EUR0.5634
AUD/GBP0.4905
AUD/HKD5.1413

 

 

 

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