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Retail Spending Softens as Households Stay Cautious; EUR Outlook Improves on Better Confidence

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Retail Spending Softens as Households Stay Cautious; EUR Outlook Improves on Better Confidence
Retail spending weakened in June as households remained under pressure from elevated living costs and cautious consumer sentiment. Spending eased across a range of discretionary categories, highlighting that many consumers continue to prioritise essential purchases while delaying non-essential spending. Notes that while easing fuel prices should provide some relief in coming months, higher overall living costs and subdued confidence are likely to keep spending patterns restrained in the near term. At the same time, official retail sales data will provide a clearer indication of whether household demand can regain momentum during the second half of the year.
In currency markets, the euro is showing signs of stabilising after recent weakness. Improving business confidence and resilient industrial activity suggest the euro area economy is holding up better than previously feared, reducing downside risks for the single currency. Expectations that the energy shock will continue to unwind, alongside the possibility of one final European Central Bank rate increase, could support a recovery in EUR/USD towards the upper end of its established trading range.

 

General Market

Wall Street

  • Dow Jones: +0.29% to 53,601
  • S&P 500: +0.72% to 7,537
  • Nasdaq: -0.12% to 29,625
Asia-Pacific
  • ASX 200: +0.03% to 8,813
  • Nikkei: -0.68% to 69,664
  • Shanghai Composite: -0.05% to 4,672
Europe
  • FTSE: -0.11% to 10,659
  • DAX: -0.06% to 25,817
  • CAC: -0.06% to 8,502

Headlines to Watch

United States

  • FOMC Minutes → clues on Fed policy path and rate outlook
  • Consumer credit → gauge of household spending
  • Crude oil inventories → impact on energy prices and inflation

Europe

  • Bundesbank President Nagel speech → ECB policy expectations
  • Interest rate outlook remains a key EUR driver

Asia-Pacific

  • RBNZ rate decision → primary driver for NZD
  • RBNZ press conference → forward guidance in focus
  • Japan current account and bank lending → economic momentum
  • RBA Assistant Governor Hunter speech → inflation and policy signals

Global / Geopolitics

  • Central bank policy divergence remains a key market theme
  • Energy prices continue to influence inflation expectations
  • Trade and geopolitical developments remain key risk drivers
Currency Pair Mid-market Rate
AUD/USD 0.6954
AUD/NZD 1.2198
AUD/JPY 112.73
AUD/CNY 4.7250
AUD/EUR 0.6078
AUD/GBP 0.5191
AUD/HKD 5.4544

 

 

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