Markets Stable as Gold Pulls Back, USD Edges Higher

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Forex Market 

USD Mixed; AUD Supported by Gold Despite Trade Uncertainty
The USD edged higher toward 99pts in a quiet session. The S&P 500 remained steady near record highs, while Brent Crude gained 0.6% to US$61/bbl. Oil’s recent drop from US$70 could extend if concerns about rising global inventories persist—posing a headwind to the USD. Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown enters its fourth week, with Democratic leaders seeking discussions before President Trump’s planned trip to Asia. Prolonged shutdown risks could dampen U.S. growth, increase expectations of further Fed rate cuts, and weigh on the USD.
  • AUD/USD traded between 0.6478–0.6502, supported by firm gold prices despite a sharp pullback in commodities.
  • EUR/USD held near 1.1660–1.1695, steady as the USD regained modest strength.
  • GBP/USD eased to 1.3380–1.3420 ahead of UK CPI data later today.
  • USD/JPY firmed to 149.25, with the BoJ expected to maintain its policy stance next week.
  • USD/CAD rose to 1.1025 before retreating after stronger Canadian CPI.
  • AUD/NZD traded narrowly between 1.132–1.136, little changed on light flows.

Key Economic Data Ahead (Sydney Time)

 

General Market

Wall Street
  • Dow Jones +1.2% to 47,126
  • S&P 500 +1.1% to 6,734
  • Nasdaq +1.4% to 23,008
  • VIX –11.0% to 18.49
Asia-Pacific
  • ASX 200 +0.4% to 9,032
  • Hang Seng +2.4%
  • Nikkei +3.4% to 49,186
  • Shanghai Comp +0.6% to 3,864
Europe
  • FTSE +0.5% to 9,404
  • DAX +1.8% to 24,259
  • CAC +0.4% to 8,206

Headlines to Watch 

  • United States:
    The U.S. government shutdown continues, halting most data collection. No major releases are expected until Thursday’s CPI, which will proceed despite limited staffing.
  • Canada:
    The September CPI release later today could influence the BoC’s upcoming rate decision. Stronger inflation raises questions, but markets still expect a 25bp rate cut next week.
  • Japan:
    The BoJ is expected to maintain policy settings next week, but tone will be key. Officials aim to preserve flexibility while coordinating closely with the Takaichi government.
  • United Kingdom:
    Markets await September CPI results for insight into the BoE’s rate outlook. Inflation remains above target, but easing pressures could support a policy shift in early 2026.

Mid-market rates

Currency PairMid-market Rate
AUD/USD0.6491
AUD/NZD1.1306
AUD/JPY98.62
AUD/CNY4.6216
AUD/EUR0.5595
AUD/GBP0.4855
AUD/HKD5.0447

 

 

 

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