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Forex Market
The Nasdaq rose +1.1%, the Dow Jones +1.0%, and the S&P 500 +0.58%.
U.S. 10-year yields held at 4.00%, while Brent Crude slipped slightly to $65.65/bbl.
Weekend news of progress in U.S.–China trade talks helped the AUD/USD peak at 0.65475 in early Monday trade, up from 0.6510 late last week.
- Asian equities closed higher: KOSPI +2.5%, Nikkei +1.4%, Shenzhen +1.3%, Hang Seng +0.7%. The ASX fell -0.2% due to weakness in healthcare and financials. AUD/USD peaked at 0.6517 before easing to 0.6494.
- European equities opened mixed after diverging PMI data — France’s composite PMI missed at 46.8 vs 48.4 est., while Germany (53.8) and Eurozone (52.2) beat forecasts. EUR/USD briefly rose to 1.1628, and GBP/USD dipped to 1.3301.
- Equities softened into lunch: CAC -0.5%, Stoxx -0.2%, while FTSE and DAX traded sideways. Gold fell -1.7% to $4,050/oz.
- U.S. CPI (Sept) printed at +0.2% MoM / +3.0% YoY, both 0.1% below forecasts; Core CPI matched that trend.
- The USD weakened, yields dipped, and equities advanced. AUD/USD hit 0.6529, NZD/USD 0.5780, EUR/USD 1.1649, GBP/USD 1.3385, and USD/JPY dropped to 152.25.
- Later data showed U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Oct) at 52.2, Services PMI at 55.2, and Composite PMI at 54.8, all above estimates.
- University of Michigan Sentiment was revised down to 53.6 (from 55.0), below expectations.
- he USD later pared losses: GBP/USD fell to 1.32885, NZD/USD slipped, and USD/CAD rose to 1.4039.
- Wall St. held firm: Dow +1.0%, S&P 500 +0.8%, Nasdaq +1.1%.
- Early Monday trade saw risk currencies rally on optimism over Trump–Xi trade talks: AUD/USD 0.65475, NZD/USD 0.5794, USD/JPY 153.08.
Key Economic Data Ahead (Sydney Time)
General Market
- Dow Jones +1.0% to 47,207
- S&P 500 +0.8% to 6,792
- Nasdaq +1.1% to 23,205
- VIX -5.4% to 16.37
- ASX 200 -0.2% to 9,019
- Shanghai Comp +0.7% to 3,950
- Nikkei +1.4% to 49,300
- FTSE +0.7% to 9,646
- DAX +0.1% to 24,240
- CAC 0.0% to 8,226
Headlines to Watch
- United States:
CPI for September will be released tonight, proceeding despite the ongoing government shutdown as staff have been recalled for the report.
Consensus expects +0.3% MoM, matching August’s increase. Upside risks may stem from tariff pass-through in core goods, though the Cleveland Fed nowcast suggests downside risks.
October PMI data may also draw attention amid limited official releases, with September’s readings showing continued expansion in manufacturing and services. Australia:
Remarks from RBA’s Bullock and the Westpac Leading Index will offer insight into the domestic outlook following the central bank’s steady policy stance.
Mid-market rates
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