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AUDUSD is steady at 0.6615. Regarding the RBA meeting today, any indications of earlier rate cuts (before February) would weaken the AUD and slightly lift NZD. Conversely, a more hawkish statement suggesting cuts pushed to later in 2025 would strengthen the AUD
Stocks market rose overnight as traders anticipate US retail sales data and look forward to statements from various Fed officials throughout the week. The yield on the US 10-year increased 5bps to 4.28%. Regarding the US data, the Empire State Manufacturing Index improved to -6.0 in June from -15.6 in May, signalling a modest decline in business activity. Despite the headline improvement, employment is weakening, and price metric suggest reduced inflation pressure. However, there is increased optimism about future business conditions.
In the day ahead, the RBA is scheduled to announce its cash rate at 4:30pm, and no change is expected to the current rate of 4.35% and the press conference will follow an hour later. FOMC member Cook is also scheduled to speak. Later in the evening, US Retal Sales data will be released just after midnight, followed by US Industrial Production shortly after, both closely watched for insights.
Economic data to watch out for.
• AU – RBA Cash Rate Target
• EU – Jun. ZEW Survey Expectations
• EU – ECB’s Cipollone, Guindos, Villeroy Speaks
• US – May. Retail Sales Advance m/m
• US – May. Industrial Production m/m
• US – Apr. Business Inventories
• US – Fed’s Barkin, Kugler, Logan, Musalem, and Goolsbee Speak
Mid market rates.
| Currency Pair | Mid-market rate |
| AUD/USD | 0.6615 |
| AUD/NZD | 1.0783 |
| AUD/JPY | 104.27 |
| AUD/CNY | 4.8086 |
| AUD/EUR | 0.6158 |
| AUD/GBP | 0.5214 |
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