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Market Update 3/07/2024

Welcome to our daily market update, where we help keep you informed on the latest happenings in the world of FX.
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US bond yields eased, with the 10-year yield dropping 2 basis points to 4.44%, as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in the panel discussion that US returning to a disinflationary trend. However, an unexpected increase in job vacancies pushed bond yields back up. The DXY fell after briefly surpassing 106 and the USD weakened against most of its G10 peers, while equity markets showed mixed results.
US job openings (JOLTS) unexpectedly increased in May, breaking a months-long decline that indicated a gradual slowdown in labor demand. The number of available positions rose to 8.14 million from a revised 7.92 million in the previous month, which was the lowest in three years.
NZD/USD found support around 0.6050 and rebounded as the US dollar weakened. Currently, it is just above the 200-day moving average at 0.6070, but below the 50-day moving average of 0.6085. The Fibonacci level of 0.6140 is a target on the upside, while the 0.6000 mark should provide support on the downside, with closer support around 0.6030-40.
NZD/AUD remained steady, fluctuating around 0.9110. This afternoon, Australian Retail Sales and Building Approvals will be released at 1:30pm. Retail sales are expected to show a slight increase of 0.3% m/m, compared to the previous 0.1%.
NZD/JPY is on an upward trend. With limited Japanese data expected this week, attention will be on potential statements from officials. The next Bank of Japan rate decision is set for 31st July.
NZDEUR is trading at a similar level to yesterday, around 0.5656. Preliminary June CPI data for the Euro area showed a decrease to 2.5% year-on-year, with core inflation at 2.9%. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane indicated that June inflation data alone won’t fully answer questions about underlying price pressures, suggesting that the ECB might wait for additional data before its September meeting.
This evening focuses on the US with key data releases: ADP Non-Farm Employment, unemployment claims, ISM Services PMI, and Factory Orders, all scheduled between 12:15 am and 2 am NZT. FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 6 am, just before the next trading day. Markets will also be paying attention to speeches from FOMC member Williams and ECB President Lagarde.

Here are the latest mid-market rates:

Currency PairMid-market rate


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