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Equity markets were mixed, with the S&P 500 rising 0.2%, while the Euro Stoxx 50 declined by 0.4% and the FTSE 100 by 0.8%. The US 10-year bond yield held steady at 4.28%. Gold hit a new record high overnight, reaching USD 2,771.1 per ounce as rising uncertainties surrounding the US election and Middle East tensions drove demand for safe-haven assets.
US JOLTS report for September indicated that job openings in the US dropped to 7.44 million, coming in below market expectations and down from a revised 7.86 million in August. This decline was largely driven by a 325,000 reduction in openings in the South, likely linked to hurricane impacts, particularly from Hurricane Helene. The ratio of job openings to unemployed individuals continued its steady decline, reaching 1.09 in September.
US consumer confidence saw a strong rise in October, surpassing economists forecasts due to positive outlooks on the economy and job market. The Conference Board’s index climbed to 108.7, marking the highest level since early this year. Additionally, the gap between those reporting jobs as plentiful versus hard to get, a key labor market indicator improved for the first time since January.
Uncertainty around the US election remains a key focus in markets, with the USD rising over the past 24 hours against most of its G10 counterparts.
NZDUSD remained in its downward trend overnight, touching 0.5953 before edging back to 0.5970. The 0.5950 level poses a key downside risk, with August lows of 0.5850 in focus as well. On the upside, a break above 0.6000 would mark a significant positive shift. The market is heavily leaning toward a 25bps Fed rate cut next Friday morning (NZT), with over 95% chance priced in. If Powell meets these expectations, the currency reaction may be subdued as election outcome might take centre stage.
NZDAUD has regained some ground, approaching 0.9100, with 0.9140 as the next target if momentum holds. Today’s movement for the AUD hinges on inflation figures, a slowdown would raise the chances of an interest rate cut, although expectations for any RBA move before year-end remain low. Increased rate cut expectations could weigh on the AUD and, to a lesser extent the NZD, which could potentially lift NZDAUD higher.
NZDGBP slipped to 0.4585, its lowest point since July, as GBP strengthened alongside rising gilt yields, with attention on the new Labour government’s first budget announcement later today.
There is no significant domestic data scheduled today, with regional attention turning to Australia’s Q3 CPI release at 1:30 pm NZT. Later, Eurozone Q3 GDP is expected to show a 0.2% growth, with close monitoring of German data for signs of a potential recession. In the UK, the Budget release will be of interest, as Chancellor Reeves has hinted at revised fiscal rules to enable more borrowing for infrastructure. Overnight, US ADP Non-Farm Employment figures and Advance GDP data will be key for further insights into the US economy.
Here are the latest mid-market rates:
Currency Pair | Mid-market rate |
NZD/USD | 0.5967 |
NZD/AUD | 0.9099 |
NZD/JPY | 91.57 |
NZD/CNY | 4.2614 |
NZD/EUR | 0.5518 |
NZD/GBP | 0.4587 |
NZD/HKD | 4.6378 |
NZD/SGD | 0.7907 |
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