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It was a quiet start ahead of the major central bank meetings and market movements have been minimal. US equities are stable, and global rates have decreased slightly. The yield on the US 10-year fell by 2.9 bps to 4.16%.
The USD regained some strength and is trading slightly higher as the dollar index (DXY) firmed. News sources attribute this to confidence that the Fed will signal imminent rate cuts at its meeting this week, which is seen as boosting the US economy. Although lower US interest rates are expected, markets are also anticipating significant cuts in the UK this week and in Canada next week, so the lower rates are not a unique disadvantage for the USD.
There are a few releases on the radar today, although they are unlikely to be market moving.
Japanese unemployment is expected to have remained steady at 2.6% in June. Recent labour market data have been mixed, with PMI employment indices remaining solid, but job openings and offers sliding a little lower.
Over to the Eurozone and GDP for Q2 is likely to show growth of +0.2% q/q, slightly slower than growth in Q1 of +0.3% q/q. Composite PMI data for Q2 suggest modest growth has continued, led by the services sectors (including retail trade), while manufacturing activity is likely to have contracted further. Markets expect construction activity to have been a drag on growth, following unexpected growth in Q1.
In the US, job openings have been declining sharply from its March 2022 peak albeit increasing slightly in May. For the June outcome today markets will be looking for signs that the declining trend has stabilized.
AUD/USD traded in a 0.6524/68 range with all key levels remaining intact. Demand rests at 0.6460/80, while offering interest remains above 0.6700.
Economic Data
• JP – Jun. Jobless Rate
• AU – Jun. Building Approvals m/m
• EU – Jul F. Consumer Confidence
• EU – Q2. GDP SA q/q
• US – May. FHFA House Price Index m/m
• US – May. S&P CoreLogic. CS 20-City y/y NSA
• US – Jul. Conf. Board Consumer Confidence
• US – Jun. JOLTS Job Openings (edited)
Mid market rates.
Currency Pair | Mid-market rate |
AUD/USD | 0.6554 |
AUD/NZD | 1.1145 |
AUD/JPY | 100.80 |
AUD/CNY | 4.7640 |
AUD/EUR | 0.6055 |
AUD/GBP | 0.5095 |
AUD/USD 24 Hour
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