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It was a quiet start ahead of the major central bank meetings and market movements have been minimal. US equities are stable, and global rates have decreased slightly. The yield on the US 10-year fell by 2.9 bps to 4.16%.
The USD regained some strength and is trading slightly higher as the dollar index (DXY) firmed. News sources attribute this to confidence that the Fed will signal imminent rate cuts at its meeting this week, which is seen as boosting the US economy. Although lower US interest rates are expected, markets are also anticipating significant cuts in the UK this week and in Canada next week, so the lower rates are not a unique disadvantage for the USD.
NZDUSD is still struggling, having hit a new three-month low just below 0.5860 and is currently at 0.5875. Today should be relatively calm, with some minor fluctuations possible if there are position changes ahead of tomorrow’s major events. NZDUSD is likely to find support around the March lows 0.5853 with resistance around 0.5900.
NZDAUD has been holding steady at 0.8980 over the past week, but it’s now dropping below that level. If it continues to fall, 0.8980 might shift from support to resistance.
NZDEUR exchange rate has increased slightly to 0.5430, while the EURUSD exchange rate is underperforming at 1.0820. Additionally, according to the Financial Times, the European Union is developing a two-step trade plan to handle potential future dealings with Donald Trump if he is re-elected. The plan includes offering a quick trade deal but also being prepared to impose targeted tariffs in retaliation if Trump enacts punitive tariffs. If negotiations to improve trade relations fail and Trump raises tariffs, the European Commission is preparing a list of imports that could be hit with duties of 50% or more.
In the day ahead, there are no local updates from New Zealand. At 1:30 pm, Australia will release building approvals data. Tonight, we have the German CPI and some EU GDP figures, followed by US consumer confidence, house prices, and job openings. These events are unlikely to excite the market ahead of a big day tomorrow, which includes Australia’s CPI release, the Bank of Japan’s announcement, and the FOMC meeting on Thursday morning.
Here are the latest mid-market rates:
| Currency Pair | Mid-market rate |
| NZD/USD | 0.5878 |
| NZD/AUD | 0.8972 |
| NZD/JPY | 90.56 |
| NZD/CNY | 4.2745 |
| NZD/EUR | 0.5432 |
| NZD/GBP | 0.4570 |
| NZD/HKD | 4.5910 |
| NZD/SGD | 0.7897 |
NZD/USD 24 HOURS
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