Welcome to our daily market update, where we help keep you informed on the latest happenings in the world of FX.
If you have any questions or would like anything further explained, please don’t hesitate to reach out to your account manager or email info@cafx.com
US President Biden has confirmed he is pulling out of the 2024 election race and has endorsed his VP Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee. So far there has been very limited market reaction to the news with only a few prints across the whole market this morning in extremely quiet trade.
Market Wrap The slide continued on Wall St. on Friday with the Dow Jones closing -0.9%, the Nasdaq -0.8%, and the S&P 500 -0.7%. U.S. 10 year yields rose 4bps to 4.24%, while crude oil fell 3.1% to $80.30 a barrel. AUD/USD traded in a narrow 0.6681/.6709 range before closing the week at .6685,Into the London lunch and the greenback pulled back a touch after EUR/USD and GBP/USD found lows of 1.0877 and 1.2901 respectively. The antipodes also dipped to 0.6688 and 0.6018 while USD/JPY steadied around 157.50. USD/CAD traded in the middle of its range at 1.3710 ahead of Canada’s May retail sales release.
Canadian Retail Sales for May fell by 0.8% MoM, down from +0.6% and worse than expectations of -0.6% with the core measure also weaker than expected. USD/CAD rose to highs near 1.3750 over the NY morning with the USD a little stronger with the antipodeans falling to new respective lows of 0.6684 and 0.60135.Wall St was weaker from the open with indices sliding lower over the NY morning after opening near flat to be down around 0.5%. European markets remained soft in late trade with the DAX closing down 1% on the day while losses elsewhere were around 0.5%.
In China, the 1-year and 5-year LPRs, China’s benchmark loan rates, will be released today. The consensus that both are unlikely to change in July, after the central bank kept the 1-year MLF rate on hold on July 15. Since Governor Pan took office last July, the PBoC has been prioritizing currency stability over domestic reflation. Macquarie Strategy describe such a strategy as “Hang in there until the Fed blinks.”, with our US economists expecting a first Fed rate cut in September, the PBoC could follow suit at that time.
After the widely watched Third Plenum wrapped up on July 18, a longer document, also called “Decision”, could be released this week. It may contain more details on things like fiscal reform and boosting business confidence. But even so, it may take years to implement and will not impact the economy in the near term. In Macquarie Strategy’s view, a shift in growth drivers is much more important than the grand vision laid out at top-level Party meetings (Thoughts after the Third Plenum, 18 July 2024). Such a shift occurred in 2021, ushering in the current Two-Speed model. Looking ahead, another shift could happen if rising trade protectionism forces policymakers to rely more on domestic demand to drive growth.AUD/USD traded in a narrow .6681/.6709 range on Friday with all key levels remaining intact. Demand rests in the .6640/50 region, while offering interest remains above .6800.
Economic Data
• NZ – Jun. Trade Balance
• CN – 1Year, 5Year Loan Prime Rate
• US – Jun. Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
Mid market rates.
Currency Pair | Mid-market rate |
AUD/USD | 0.6699 |
AUD/NZD | 1.1118 |
AUD/JPY | 105.30 |
AUD/CNY | 4.8764 |
AUD/EUR | 0.6144 |
AUD/GBP | 0.5178 |
AUD/USD 24 Hour

Disclaimer:
The market update provided by Corporate Alliance FX (CAFX) is for reference only and does not constitute a bid, levy, offer or invitation to offer for the financial product, the basis for any contract or commitment, a recommendation for the purchase or sale of any investment instruments, financial, legal, tax, investment advice, investment advice or other opinions. It will not be legally liable for any consequences or losses caused by the information or content involved.
Corporate Alliance Group Pty Ltd T/A Corporate Alliance FX (CAFX) (ABN 58 167 119 226, AFSL 523351) (i.e. CAFX), CAFX independently holds the Australian Financial Services licence no. 523351 (AFSL), so CAFX is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) and, and although ASIC is a strictly regulatory body, it does not endorse a specific financial product. ASIC’s regulation of CAFX applies to all services under the financial licence held by CAFX, including the issuance of foreign exchange settlement, foreign exchange payments, foreign exchange risk control, hedging, market making and providing financial advice.