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All three major US indexes ended with a 0.2% gain, while in Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 rose by 0.7%, and the FTSE 100 fell by 0.4%. The yield on the US 10-year dropped by 3 bps to 3.88%.
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment showed strength for the first time since March, boosting interest in risk assets. Goldman Sachs reduced their estimate of a US recession in the next year from 25% to 20%, citing positive retail sales and jobless data. If September payrolls are strong, they may lower this probability further.
Overall, the USD weakened during Friday night’s trading session, with bond yields slightly down and stocks generally moving higher.
NZDUSD traded above 0.6050 as the week ended, supported by broader USD movement. Friday night’s strength pushed it towards the higher end of recent ranges, with a solid close. We’re nearing the 200-day moving average at 0.6090. This week, we expect to follow offshore trends, but likely see consolidation as importers who missed last week’s highs look to hedge. Support is near 0.6000, while the target for more active importers is around 0.6090.
NZDAUD is likely to stay under pressure due to stronger Australian employment data compared to New Zealand. While there’s already a significant expectation of rate cuts in New Zealand, the risks could include weaker Australian data or reduced expectations for NZ rate cuts. However, for now, NZDAUD seems poised to remain under pressure.
NZDGBP and NZDEUR made modest gains and are currently trading at 0.4673 and 0.5484.
The week begins quietly in terms of data, with the NZ services PMI as the only notable release today at 10:30 am. The index dropped to 40.2 in June, a record low since 2007, excluding the large fluctuations during the pandemic. Key global events this week include US Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, which is expected to set the stage for a September rate cut, and preliminary PMIs for Europ
Here are the latest mid-market rates:
| Currency Pair | Mid-market rate |
| NZD/USD | 0.6054 |
| NZD/AUD | 0.9070 |
| NZD/JPY | 89.40 |
| NZD/CNY | 4.3330 |
| NZD/EUR | 0.5486 |
| NZD/GBP | 0.4676 |
| NZD/HKD | 4.7119 |
| NZD/SGD | 0.7966 |
NZD/USD 24 HOURS
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