Market Update 17/09/2024

Welcome to our daily market update, where we help keep you informed on the latest happenings in the world of FX. If you have any questions or would like anything further explained, please don’t hesitate to reach out to your account manager or email info@cafx.com

A quieter session saw mixed results on Wall St. with the Dow Jones closing +0.5%, the S&P 500 +0.1%, and the Nasdaq -0.5%.  U.S. 10-year yields fell 3bps to 3.62%, while crude oil rose 2.7% to $70.50 a barrel.  USD remained soft which saw USDJPY briefly trade through 140, while AUDUSD closed at the top end of its 0.6700/54 range.

ECB’s key speaker Guindos left future rate decisions open-ended as he noted there was no pre-determined path for rates, while Kazmir remarked the next move ‘almost surely’ would wait until December. EUR/USD remained elevated at 1.1129, while Sterling continued higher to look above 1.3200.

Into the London lunch the greenback found support, the DXY slowing above 100.60. The antipodes pushed to 0.6748 and 0.6198 while EUR/USD and GBP/USD found resistance 1.1133 and 1.3210. USD/JPY fell back below 140, still off earlier 139.58 lows, and US equity futures were a touch weaker.

US Empire Manufacturing surprised in September to print 11.5, well above -4.3 expectations and up on August’s -4.7. USD/JPY climbed 50pts after the data to set session highs at 140.71.Into the NY lunch and markets were predictably subdued given the event risk later in the week. Apple slid 3% after reports emerged warning the demand for the iPhone 16 had been lower than expected.

Day AheadIn China, the country will continue to celebrate the Mid-Autumn Festival (Sep 15-17). This could provide a boost to the services sector, although the impact is likely to be moderate given the weak labour market and soft wage growth.In Canada, The Consumer Price Index for August will be released tonight. This release may influence the decision towards either a 25 bps or a 50 bps cut by the BoC at their October meeting.  It is expected to continue the ongoing trend of disinflation, with the market anticipating the headline measure to fall to 2.1%.

U.S. Retail Sales for August will be also published tonight. The release will provide more insight into consumer spending for the month. Following the robust reading for July, consensus expects the measure to decelerate to 0.2% MoM likely reflecting a headwind from auto sales. Core sales (ex food/energy) growth is expected to remain steady at +0.4% MoM.AUD/USD remained well supported and traded in a .6700/54 range.  Offering interest is expected as close as .6760, and again ahead of .6800, while demand remains in the .6600/25 region.
 

 Here are the latest mid-market rates:

 
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