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Equity markets held steady to begin the week. The S&P 500 slipped slightly by 0.1%, while the Euro Stoxx 50 gained 1.1% and the FTSE 100 rose 0.7%. With the US Treasury market closed for Veterans Day, the USD remained strong, lifting the DXY (dollar index) 0.6% to 105.60.
NZDUSD has edged slightly lower and is currently trading at the 0.5960 support level. The interest rate gap between NZ and US two-year swap rates has tightened, which has lessened support for NZDUSD. This downward pressure is expected to continue, with the RBNZ anticipated to make another rate cut in November, while the US FOMC may hold back on expected cuts than previously anticipated due to Trump’s inflationary policies. Key levels show support at 0.5935 with resistance at 0.5990 & 0.6020.
NZDJPY is trading at 91.60 as USDJPY continued to rise overnight, now around 153.70. Japan’s parliament re-elects Shigeru Ishiba as Prime Minister following the Liberal Democratic Party’s loss of majority in the October election. USDJPY could climb further if Republicans gain control of the House and positive risk sentiment holds, though potential FX intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance may limit USDJPY’s rise. Last week, Japan’s top currency official stated that the MoF was prepared to “take appropriate action” against excessive currency movements.
NZDEUR was the main mover, trading back up to 0.5600 as EURUSD remained relatively weak among G10 currencies, reaching its lowest level since April near 1.0600. Germany is experiencing political uncertainty after the ruling coalition collapsed over a budget dispute, possibly leading to early elections in 2025. Europe is facing several challenges, with President Trump’s US election win adding concerns about a potential strain on trade and security relations between the US and Europe.
The economic calendar is fairly quiet today. In Australia, attention will be on Westpac Consumer Sentiment at 12:30 pm and NAB Business Confidence at 1:30 pm. Later in the evening, the UK will release labor market data, followed by Germany’s ZEW survey results. Early tomorrow morning (NZT), influential Fed Governor Waller is scheduled to speak.
Here are the latest mid-market rates:
| Currency Pair | Mid-market rate |
| NZD/USD | 0.5965 |
| NZD/AUD | 0.9068 |
| NZD/JPY | 91.61 |
| NZD/CNY | 4.3074 |
| NZD/EUR | 0.5594 |
| NZD/GBP | 0.4632 |
| NZD/HKD | 4.6354 |
| NZD/SGD | 0.7951 |
