Market Update 10/02/2025

February 10, 2025

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The Nasdaq closed down 1.4% on Friday, while the Dow Jones fell 1% and the S&P 500 dropped 0.9%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose 6 basis points to 4.49%, and oil prices increased 0.6% to $74.70 per barrel.

Friday’s U.S. non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 143,000 jobs, lower than the revised 307,000 and the expected 175,000, though net revisions for the previous two months were +100,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell 0.1% to 4.0%, while the labor participation rate surprisingly rose 0.1% to 62.6%. Additionally, average hourly earnings increased 0.5% month-over-month and 4.1% year-over-year, higher than the expected 0.3% and 3.8%.

The dollar initially weakened after the data release due to the lower-than-expected job numbers but rebounded as the data was digested. Major currency pairs then stabilized near pre-release levels. AUD/USD first rose to 0.63025, then fell to a low of 0.6266, before settling around 0.6280. NZD/USD touched a high of 0.5694, then dropped to 0.56605, before stabilizing around 0.5675.

Asian stock indices closed mixed for the week, with the Nikkei down 0.7%, Hang Seng up 1.2%, and Shenzhen 300 up 1.3%. The ASX 200 closed 0.1% lower, dragged down by losses in energy and healthcare sectors.

European stock markets traded flat, with the FTSE, CAC, and DAX closing down 0.2%, 0.3%, and 0.5% respectively. EUR/USD and GBP/USD rose to daily highs of 1.0400 and 1.2469 respectively following stronger-than-expected German export data for December (2.9% vs -0.5% expected).

Reports emerged that Trump told Republican lawmakers he planned to issue reciprocal tariffs as early as that day. Later comments suggested tariffs would be announced next week, with Trump indicating it was an option to address the trade deficit with Japan. Another report stated that the EU would lower tariffs on U.S. cars.

These reports resulted in a sell-off of risk assets and further strengthening of the dollar. Wall Street weakened on the news, with the Dow and S&P 500 quickly turning early gains into losses of about 1%, while the Nasdaq fell nearly 1.5% in early New York trading. In late trading, major currency pairs showed little movement, fluctuating within narrow ranges.

Mid-market rates.

Currency Pair	Mid-market Rate
AUD/USD	0.6248
AUD/NZD	1.1072
AUD/JPY	94.66
AUD/CNY	4.5697
AUD/EUR	0.6070
AUD/GBP	0.5046
AUD/HKD	4.8662

Chart of the day

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Market Update 10/02/2025

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