Welcome to our daily market update, where we help keep you informed on the latest happenings in the world of FX.If you have any questions or would like anything further explained, please don’t hesitate to reach out to your account manager or email info@cafx.com
• Donald Trump has secured a decisive victory in the U.S. Presidential election, reclaiming the White House. The news triggered a rally in risk assets, with major U.S. indices showing substantial gains late in the trading session: Dow Jones up 3.4%, Nasdaq up 2.8%, and S&P 500 up 2.4%. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields climbed 16 basis points to 4.43%, while crude oil prices dipped slightly to $71.70 per barrel. The AUD/USD pair hit a low of 0.6513 before rebounding to 0.6580/85 prior to Asian markets opening.
• Asian markets had a mixed response to Trump’s projected win. The Shenzhen index dropped 0.5%, Hang Seng fell 2.2%, while the Nikkei rose 2.6%. Australia’s ASX gained 0.5%, driven by technology and banking sectors. The AUD/USD recovered to above 0.6550 by session’s end, after earlier declining from 0.6645 to 0.6513.
• European markets opened positively as Trump secured Pennsylvania, with the Stoxx, FTSE, CAC, and DAX all rising 0.5%. The U.S. 10-year yield traded at 4.40%, up 12 basis points for the day but 6 basis points below its peak. Brent crude fluctuated around $74.50.
• Trump declared victory from Florida as congratulatory messages from global leaders began arriving. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs fell to lows of 1.0703 (-2.0%) and 1.2847 (-1.5%) respectively.
• A Republican ‘red sweep’ became more probable as Senate results came in and the House leaned towards GOP control. Eurozone PMIs slightly outperformed expectations, with composite at 51.6 (vs 51.2 expected) and services at 48.6 (vs 48.4 expected).
• During London’s midday trading, the U.S. dollar saw increased buying interest. AUD/USD and NZD/USD showed resilience at 0.6560 and 0.5940, while EUR/USD and GBP/USD declined further to 1.0683 and 1.2835. USD/JPY edged up to 154.46, and U.S. equity futures indicated a strong opening with S&P 500 up 2.1% and Nasdaq up 1.7%.
• The U.S. session lacked significant economic data, with even a decline in Canada’s IVEY PMI (52.0 from 53.1) failing to impact markets.
• Wall Street opened robustly, with the Dow Jones gaining over 3% in the morning, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq both rose more than 2%. European markets underperformed, with FTSE closing down 0.1%, CAC losing 0.5%, and DAX dropping 1.1%.
• Reports emerged in the New York afternoon that Vice President Harris would concede to Trump, who also clinched Michigan, further extending his Electoral College lead.
• Currency markets calmed in the New York afternoon, though USD/JPY reached new highs at 154.70. AUD/USD stabilized in the upper 0.65 range, near 0.6590 as Sydney markets prepared to open.
• U.S. stock markets maintained their strength late in the session, with Dow Jones up 3.4%, Nasdaq up 2.7%, and S&P 500 up 2.4%.
To watch for
• JP – Sep. Labour Cash Earnings y/y
• CN – Oct. Exports & Imports y/y
• AU – Sep. Trade Balance
• Germany – Sep. Exports, Imports & Industrial Production SA m/m
• EU – ECB’s Stournaras, Schnabel, Lane Speak
• EU – Sep. Retail Sales y/y
• UK – Nov 07. Bank of England Bank Rate
• UK – BOE Press Conference
• US – Nov 02. Initial Jobless Claims
• US – 3Q P. Unit Labour Costs
• US – FOMC Rate Decision (Lower & Upper Bound)
• US – Nov. Consumer Credit
Mid-market rates.
| Currency Pair | Mid-market rate |
| AUD/USD | 0.6566 |
| AUD/NZD | 1.1064 |
| AUD/JPY | 101.51 |
| AUD/CNH | 4.7317 |
| AUD/EUR | 0.6122 |
| AUD/GBP | 0.5099 |
| AUD/HKD | 5.1053 |
Chart of the day
The market update provided by Corporate Alliance FX (CAFX) is for reference only and does not constitute a bid, levy, offer or invitation to offer for the financial product, the basis for any contract or commitment, a recommendation for the purchase or sale of any investment instruments, financial, legal, tax, investment advice, investment advice or other opinions. It will not be legally liable for any consequences or losses caused by the information or content involved.
Corporate Alliance Group Pty Ltd T/A Corporate Alliance FX (CAFX) (ABN 58 167 119 226, AFSL 523351) (i.e. CAFX), CAFX independently holds the Australian Financial Services licence no. 523351 (AFSL), so CAFX is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) and, and although ASIC is a strictly regulatory body, it does not endorse a specific financial product. ASIC’s regulation of CAFX applies to all services under the financial licence held by CAFX, including the issuance of foreign exchange settlement, foreign exchange payments, foreign exchange risk control, hedging, market making and providing financial advice.
