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US stocks slipped, with the S&P 500 down 0.2%, the Euro Stoxx 50 declining by 0.5% and the FTSE 100 rising slightly by 0.1%. The yield on the US 10-year bond dropped 6.1 bps to 4.32%. Polls, surveys, and betting odds continue to show both candidates in a tight race running neck to neck, with results within the margin of error, adding to concerns that a contested outcome may extend uncertainty.
Overall, the USD weakened as “Trump trade” positions eased ahead of what’s shaping up to be a very tight presidential race.
NZDUSD briefly rose above 0.6000 yesterday, reaching a high of 0.6015 after VP Harris showed stronger polling, which affected the USD. However, the NZDUSD retraced overnight and is now settled around 0.5970 this morning. It’s likely to stay range-bound, closely watching US election news for direction until results are announced. Support is expected around the recent lows of 0.5940-50, with resistance near 0.6015-20. Local focus tomorrow will be on NZ employment data, where any significant weakness could spark thoughts of an aggressive rate cut, though US events may still dominate market attention.
NZDAUD has edged down to 0.9070, with the AUD showing a bit more strength than the NZD. The RBA decision today could impact this, if there’s any unexpected outcome. While the expectation is for the RBA to hold steady and adopt a more neutral tone, a more dovish stance could prompt a stronger response in Australian rates and potentially push NZDAUD higher.
NZDGBP remains steady at 0.4610 as GBP has outperformed. The UK Budget effects continue to linger, with UK rates ticking up slightly even as global rates have generally eased. While NZDEUR is down to 0.5490.
Today’s economic calendar is relatively quiet with no major releases from New Zealand, aside from the ANZ Commodity Prices at 1:00 pm NZT. In Australia, the RBA Cash Rate statement is scheduled for 4:30 pm NZT, with the cash rate expected to remain steady. The focus will be on the US ISM Services Index due later this evening.
Here are the latest mid-market rates:
| Currency Pair | Mid-market rate |
| NZD/USD | 0.5970 |
| NZD/AUD | 0.9069 |
| NZD/JPY | 90.84 |
| NZD/CNY | 4.2450 |
| NZD/EUR | 0.5490 |
| NZD/GBP | 0.4610 |
| NZD/HKD | 4.6403 |
| NZD/SGD | 0.7880 |
