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15/07/2021 Thursday

AUD/USD Day’s Range: 0.74311 – 0.74860

The USD weakened against major currencies as Treasury yields slipped. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell admitted that inflation data is higher than expected during the transitory period, however, he believes that it was still too soon to scale back the Fed’s support for the U.S. economy. This suggests the possibility of Fed tapering assets this year. Powell sees the next six months as a critical period for inflation to see if it drops to the expected level. Powell also said the Fed was ready to act if needed to tame prices and are aware of the market concerns about inflation.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) ceases asset purchases on Wednesday shocked investors as several New Zealand banks expected a later interest rate hike in November. New Zealand’s labor market recovered to a pre-pandemic level earlier this year and RBNZ is worried that inflation could rise above its target. New Zealand dollars appreciated and gained 1.3% against USD. Investors are paying attention to the Fed’s next step and are aware of the possibility of earlier-than-expected asset tapering like RBNZ.

The Bank of Canada(BOC) also reduced asset purchase, but their adjustment was less significant compared to RBNZ. BOC scaled back bond purchases by 1 billion per week. However, unlike NZD, CAD slipped after the BOC announcement, as BOC thinks the increase in inflation is temporary, suggesting a recent interest rate hike is unlikely.

Meanwhile, Australia is experiencing an outbreak of the Delta variant of COVID-19 with a number of areas in Sydney in lockdown in June. The Australian unemployment rate will be released today at 11:00 am Sydney time and it will show the impact of the restrictions on the labor market. The PMIs, manufacturing, and service sector activity indicate a weaker job growth.


  • NZD Official Cash Rate 0.25%     vs. 0.25% exp.
  • AU July     Westpac Consumer Sentiment : 1.5% v. -5.2% prev.
  • NZ RBNZ     Rate Decision : 0.25% v. 0.25% exp (no change)
  • UK June     H/line CPI & Core CPI : 2.5% & 2.3% v. 2.2%     & 2.0% exp.
  • US June     Core PPI & H/line PPI : 1.0% & 1.0% v. 0.5%     & 0.6% exp.
  • CA BOC     Monetary Policy Statement & Press Conference : 0.25% v. 0.25% exp.
  • US EIA     Crude Oil Inventories : -7.9Mio v. -4.3Mio exp.


Major moves in the market:


  • The S&P 500 rose 0.1% as of 4:05     p.m. New York time
  • The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose     0.1%
  • The MSCI World index was little     changed


  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell     0.5%
  • The euro rose 0.5% to $1.1835
  • The British pound rose 0.3% to     $1.3859
  • The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 109.97     per dollar


  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries     declined seven basis points to 1.35%
  • Germany’s 10-year yield declined     three basis points to -0.32%
  • Britain’s 10-year yield was little     changed at 0.63%


  • West Texas Intermediate crude fell     3.4% to $72.72 a barrel
  • Gold futures rose 1% to $1,828.20 an     ounce


Upcoming data:

  • AU June     MI Inflation Expectations : 4.4% prev.
  • AU June     Employment Change & Unemployment Rate : 19.7K & 5.1% exp.
  •  CN Q2 GDP : 8.0% exp.
  • CN June     Fixed Asset Investment & Industrial Production : 12.1% & 7.8% exp.
  • CN June     Retail Sales & Unemployment Rate : 10.9% & 5.0% exp.
  • UK June     Claimant Count Change & Unemployment Rate : -32.5K & 4.7% exp.
  • US July     Philly Fed Manufacturing Index : 28.1 exp.
  • US     Unemployment Claims : 350K exp.
  • US June     Industrial Production : 0.6% exp.
  • US Fed     Chair Powell to testify
  • US FOMC     Member Evans to speak



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